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Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions

This summer has seen some fascinating sporting action by the British. England are on top of the world in cricket after trouncing India in every form of the sport. In golf, Rory McIlroy and Darren Clarke ensured Northern Ireland have something to cheer about winning the US Open and British Open Championship respectively while Welsh Dai Greene wins gold in 400meters hurdles at the World Championships earlier this week. It hasn't gone all too well in Scotland as they have no teams involved in any major football European competitions. However, recent developments this afternoon suggests Celtic are reinstated back to Europa League after FC Sion field ineligible players. All-in-all Scotland haven't been as successful as the other British nations this summer. As Judy Murray puts it "Scottish sport is drowning in a diet of chip fat". Her words, not mine.

Anyhow, the summer, or what we have had of it, is now over and the birth of Autumn sport is set to be more explosive than ever before. England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland are involved in this year's Rugby World Cup. To me, this is a great tournament, although football around the world is more popular, rugby can have a similar effect. It's the excitement, and it's not everyday we see the Pacific Islanders doing their famous Hakka.

The tournament will be based in New Zealand, another country which do the Hakka before every match. The All Blacks' are pre-tournament favourites in the run up to the competition. They are bookies' odds-on favourites in almost every single betting company. However, the likes of Australia and South Africa are not far behind them and after a tight Tri-Nations series this year, it is very difficult to predict the winner.

This blog post will show you who I think is worthy of 2011's World Cup gong. After the "success" of my football league prediction series back in June, I thought it would be good to write about this tournament which I've cherished since Wales hosted in 1999. I will set out these predictions, group-by-group, then the next stages running up to the final, giving you some anticipation - if you're like me you'd also say the smallest of things are the most fascinating.

Group A
New Zealand, France, Tonga, Canada, Japan

New Zealand, the hosts and favourites shouldn't have too much of a problem here. They kick off the world cup with a 52-19 victory over Tonga and have won every match since, gaining three bonus points in the process. Their 23-20 win against France was the only game they did not gain the extra point but that didn't make too much difference.

This is the sort of group which critics would say is easy for NZ and France while the other three sides will have to battle for the third spot which still leads to disqualification. I agree as I think France's only setback would be against the All Blacks and will be comfortable against the rest though might show some vulnerability against Canada who won the third-place battle with a mere six points thanks to those crucial bonus points.

1. New Zealand (Q) 19
2. France (Q) 14
3. Canada 6
4. Japan 5
5. Tonga 5

Group B
Argentina, England, Scotland, Georgia, Romania

This is an interesting group. We have Scotland and England which is a frequent fixture with both sides playing every year in the Six Nations. The group also has Argentina who won the bronze in France World Cup 2007. They are very much the dark horses again this year. Also in the group are Georgia and Romania.

We can expect very little from the two eastern European countries as they battle for avoiding last place. I think Romania will beat Georgia 15-9 to gain fourth place and no humiliation but the main focus is on the other three sides. Scotland have been one of the up-and-coming sides since the last World Cup as they've beaten the likes of South Africa last year. For me though, I think they will miss out on a place in the quarter finals, just. When predicting, I gave them and Argentina the same points but since the positions are demanded by point difference, the South Americans pip the Scots by 14 points.

This leaves with England. Particularly in the British media, they have been criticised for allowing the player's WAGs (Wives and Girlfriends) to come with them for moral support. England football team did the same in 2006 but didn't go far so this decision by presumably Martin Johnson, the manager hasn't been praised. It's going to be interesting how the rubgy stars are going to cope with their loved ones among their presence. I predict, in the group stages anyway, they will be enjoying some good rugby performances. Their only defeat could be against Argentina, 13-8 - their first game.

1. England (Q) 15
2. Argentina (Q) 13
3. Scotland 13
4. Romania 4
5. Georgia 1

Group C
Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia, United States

The Aussies, like New Zealand in group A are expected to cruise through these stages after a favourable draw. Neither of the sides in this group are likely to cause them any problems. United States will come closest in trying to beat them but lose 19-17 but otherwise, Australia will enjoy more matches.

Talking of US, one match I will be looking forward to is their clash with Russia. I recall 1998 when USA played Iran in the football World Cup - that was considered to be a peaceful match compared to the political hostilities between the both countries. Same could be said about their match with the Russians on 15th September. Remarkably, it will be Russia's first ever Rugby World Cup encounter. Fascinating, but I don't think they could win any games this year around. They lose 10-25 to the US but get a bonus point when they lose 21-20 to Italy.

Another team I fear will struggle is Italy. They didn't perform well in this year's Six Nations again and their warm-up performances hasn't convinced me that they will progress - same with the US but I think the Americans will be much better.

This takes me onto Ireland. The national side has been largely criticised over losing all their warm-up games and their fans have already turned their back on them. It's not an ideal situation to be in but they have a favourable draw, like Australia. Although they cannot match the Aussies in any way, they are capable of winning the rest.

1. Australia (Q) 18
2. Ireland (Q) 13
3. United States 10
4. Italy 4
5. Russia 1

Group D
South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia

Like group B, this is another tight group. All of these teams, including South Africa have many strengths and noticable weaknesses. This undoubtedly was the hardest to predict compared to the other groups.

I have risked it here. I did predict a draw between South Africa and Samoa - 26-26. In 2007's World Cup, there was one draw in the group stages and I thought there could be another one this year - spice up my predictions a little bit. It didn't make too much of a difference in South Africa's perspective as I finished them top of the group unbeaten. With Samoa on the other hand, disqualified finishing fourth.

I could talk about Wales' prospects all day as, coming from Wales myself, I follow their preparations closely through local media. I went to see their win against Argentina in Millennium Stadium in a warm-up match. They played well but it did take five minutes before half time before they went up a few gears and actually scored some tries. I see massive problems though.

This World Cup is in New Zealand - a country where Wales has a poor track record. The last time we played there was in summer 2010 where we lost to the Kiwi's 42-9 and 29-10. However, confidence is running high after a half decent Six Nations campaign and warm-up matches suggest we are ready and I realise it's difficult to face the All Blacks in their home turf and since then we have a more youthful side. My only concern is how well can we face four other top quality sides?

My predictions are that they lose their first two matches against South Africa and Samoa and beat Fiji and Namibia. The last World Cup saw Wales miss out on a quarter final place by three points thanks to, guess who, Fiji and I can only fear that they will be a sense of a deja vu this year. As a Welsh fan myself, I hope I'm wrong but we have to be realistic. I have every faith in Warren Gatland and his side to perform well so we'll wait and see.

1. South Africa (Q) 15
2. Fiji (Q) 10
3. Wales 9
4. Samoa 7
5. Namibia 5

Quarter Finals

Now we have reached the knockout stages, this is when things become really interesting. Out of the British contingency, only England and Ireland (including Northern Ireland here) remain and both face tough competition if they want to reach the final four.

Australia 25-10 Fiji: Tough game for Fiji as Australia prove to be too strong when it matters most.
England 13-15 France: No luck for England as the 2007 finalists were outplayed right at the end by the French. Both played each other in the last World Cup in the semi-final but this time it's "Au Revior" for the English.
South Africa 26-23 Ireland: Critics say that Ireland won't go far and my response is, this is how far I think they'll go. South Africa, despite their poor Tri-Nations performance shows the world why they're still number three in the globe.
New Zealand 30-16: Home advantage for the All Blacks never looked like a team capable of losing a game after the comfortable victory over Argentina.

Semi Finals

The second most important stage of the tournament. It's hotting up as every team from the top four in the World Rankings are fighting for a place in the final. Will it be Australia, France, South Africa or New Zealand destined for glory?

Australia 25-27 France: Australia took early advantage and ten point half time lead before a French surge and a winning drop kick at the last moment of the game ensured a place in the final for France.
South Africa 13-16 New Zealand: Facing each other for the third time this year, the All Blacks mark this victory as the best one yet. After losing 18-5 to the 2007 champions on August 21, the Kiwi's beat the Springbok for a pace in the final.

Bronze Final

People usually consider this stage as useless but I disagree. There is always an excuse to watch yet another match. It's a battle for third place and with my predictions, Australia take on South Africa - another Tri-Nation encounter.

Australia 26-3 South Africa: Three wins of three for Australia against South Africa in 2011 as the Down Under find it comfortable against a tired Springbok side. Both teams can hold their heads high after a successful World Cup.

Final

After six weeks and 47 matches, it all goes down to the final - 48th game. Every match has seen plenty of twists-and-turns and New Zealand and France go head-to-head for the 51st time in their history and the second time in the 2011 World Cup. Who will emerge victorious?

France 21-18 New Zealand: Shock final result at Auckland as hosts lost to France. It's the first time they have ever won the tournament which echoes the country's football success in 1998.

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Comments

  1. could u please help me by telling me who will defo play in the 2011 rugby world cup ?

    ReplyDelete

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