The Tories must be toast now, surely?

L-R: Sajid Javid, Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson (Image: Bloomberg.com)

Why do I feel as annoyed by the actions of some now former Conservative frontbenchers as I did six years ago with Labour's shadow cabinet during their failed coup attempt against Jeremy Corbyn? I probably shouldn't because actually, I thought (and still believe) that Corbyn would have led a decent Labour government, and I equally foresaw Boris Johnson's tenure be as turbulent as we'd endured these past three years. You sense that Covid-19 delayed the inevitable in one respect. But as Johnson hands in his notice, you'd think I feel relief that this era will soon come to an end. Instead, I can't help but be annoyed by the whole situation.

The week of 4th July 2022 will go written in every British history book moving forward. When Margaret Thatcher was shown the door in 1990, I don't get the impression by those who were there that her departure was as dramatic as this. She had three general election wins under her belt and there was a sense that after 11 years as Prime Minister, her expiry date had approached, poll tax or no poll tax. Johnson wanted to better that legacy - in fact, last year, he aimed to be around for another decade. 

Johnson's dramatic downfall in recent weeks put a spanner in his works. This has only happened, according to Johnson, because "when a herd moves, it moves". I believe there's an element of truth in this. Sure, he had a handful of frontbench resignations prior to this week and political commentators had been anticipating this day for ages. Some, myself included, didn't think he'd bow to the intense pressure. But when Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, publicly announced their resignations within minutes of each other, it opened the door for almost every other cabinet member to do the same.

Sunak and Javid can argue all they want that 'integrity' was the reason for their departures, and it's impossible to justify Johnson's poor handling of the scandal surrounding Deputy Chief Whip, Chris Pincher. But I truly believe that above this, it's because they - deep down - knew they were out of their depths in their roles. The UK, like everywhere else, endured so much over the past couple of years. Yet, while the recoveries across Europe and the United States are steadily positive, the British economy is sinking. Inflation has risen to a record high and energy prices are rocketing; and will continue to do so beyond October. The cost of living crisis is crippling - and Sunak had done the absolute minimum to ease the pressures, apart from throwing cash handouts which don't even touch the edges considering the current rate of price rises. He can be praised for the furlough scheme during Covid-19 lockdowns, but he should not use it as a reason for his incompetence. 

As for Javid, well, as Covid-19 is still impacting people's lives today, he completely washed his hands over the very present pandemic and has made no progress on easing waiting times for medical treatments. And as a result of his resignation, the NHS has to hear from yet another individual who is likely to have a different vision for its future (Steve Barclay is the UK's third Health Secretary in just over 12 months). Sunak and Javid have not done an honourable thing. Their irresponsibility has created greater uncertainty for millions. And as a result, we're wondering how their successors, as well as the new Education and Welsh Secretaries will manage their portfolios, knowing that weeks from now, another reshuffle will take place by Johnson's replacement. And as for Johnson sacking Michael Gove as Levelling Up Secretary, the mind boggles.

It may surprise you when I say this, but the only cabinet member who comes out positively from this is Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss. I won't give credit to every Secretary who didn't walk out during this coup, but you do wonder that by resigning, you're putting the focus on one man rather than considering the impact a decision like that would have on your portfolio. I have the somewhat naïve belief that Truss wanted to prioritise on her work over spending too much time speculating about her boss's future (whether in support or not). She must have some exceptional advisors. Home Secretary, Priti Patel, to an extent, had done this too, but her Rwanda immigration policy is too unforgivable to give her any future credit. As for Nadine Dorries and Nadhim Zahawi, their dignities had been lost a long time ago with their continuous blind backing of Johnson when other colleagues saw him as a liability. But I understand why they wanted to stay in their jobs. The government isn't all about Boris bloomin' Johnson.

Now, the Conservatives seek a new leader. I sincerely hope that Sunak and Javid aren't anywhere near 10 Downing Street and are voted down when Tory members have the chance. Truss is a popular choice and it'd be a remarkable rise to the top if she is indeed handed the keys. My instinct has said for a long time that the next leader is Penny Mordaunt, considered the 'unity' candidate. However, she may be outvoted by fellow favourites Ben Wallace and Tom Tugendhat. Despite a large number of Tories expressing an interest to lead, I'm not so convinced that any of them would be a popular choice for Prime Minister when the British public next head to the polls.

Talking of the polls, there are growing calls for the general election to be brought forward. It's currently scheduled for some time in 2024, but with Johnson going, very few of us can confidently rule out a snap election taking place in the next 12 months. With that in mind, Labour needs to be ready. As a Labour voter since 2010, you'd think I'd be confident in them winning an election. I think the party has made some progress in looking like a government in-waiting since I last wrote about the matter earlier in the year. More is still to do and I am hoping party leader Sir Keir Starmer can offer a true alternative to what Tories will want to provide.

A small part of me fears for Labour, largely because of Europe. Starmer has changed the party's stance on membership of the European Union - a 'softer Brexit' is ruled out with no application to the single market or customs union, but with the focus instead on being an improved voice for Northern Ireland due to rising tensions around its border with the Republic of Ireland. I appreciate being members of the EU is a near impossibility today, but I felt Starmer was too quick to dismiss future involvement in either the single market or customs union. Doing so risks the door for millions of disengaged pro-European voters to support the Liberal Democrats, Green Party or the nationalist parties in Wales or Scotland. It's given me second thoughts about voting Labour.

I don't believe I'm alone thinking this, and it is a problem. Voters won't vote the Tories as they did in December 2019, and they're also unconvinced about Labour's policy direction or leadership. Yet, I'm not even so sure if people will be so enthusiastic about putting an 'X' next to the Liberal Democrats or Green Party. I don't anticipate Plaid Cymru making significant gains either, as Labour will continue to dominate the Welsh political landscape. And Scotland may not even take part in the next election altogether, if the country's second independence referendum goes ahead and outcome in favour of Nicola Sturgeon's SNP.

At this rate, I only see the next election outcome being split. To which point, I still don't trust the Lib Dems to choose people over power, as the party did in 2010. The press can claim there's a red and yellow 'pact' all they want, I don't buy it. But what I do know is that thanks to Johnson, Sunak and Javid's inability to keep their party and country in decent shape, Britain will be in a hot mess for a long time.