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| Keir Starmer has two years to inspire Labour to victory (Image: BBC) |
If you believe in today's polls, Sir Keir Starmer would be the UK's next Prime Minister in the event of a general election, should one take place tomorrow. At the latter stages of 2021, the Liberal Democrats enjoyed a mini-renaissance, winning the last by-election at a seat the Conservatives had held for almost 200 years. Dozens of Tory back-bench members are rebelling against the government over Covid-19 measures. With all this talk, there's little wonder why some commentators are whispering rumours about a premature general election.
In my eyes, a general election is the last thing Labour needs right now. It's clear Starmer isn't seeking a general election so soon, neither is he going strong on calling on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign - despite presenting an alternative vision of 'security, prosperity and respect'. Both thoughts mentioned here are logical. The pandemic isn't likely to ease for months yet, Johnson leaving now wouldn't make any difference as he'd be replaced by someone with exactly the same political priorities and actions - in that it's Covid-19 above all. Yes, immediately after the pandemic situation eases to a point the government is happy with comes an economic recovery. With this, we've seen little robust opposition offered apart from representatives of the devolved governments who suggest the cash injection announced at the last Westminster Budget wasn't enough.
The next general election is due to take place at some point in 2024 which is only two years away. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, but one thing is for certain, Starmer has a lot to do before Labour is government-ready. He's been leader for almost two years, now is the time to start actually thinking about bringing the Party together and not do what he's rumouring to do. According to reports, he's looking to work closely with the Liberal Democrats so they can target specific seats, so that the Conservatives would lose its overall majority. Some may see that as normal but others, such as myself, think it's political suicide.
Unless I'm completely misreading this particular action plan, but Labour - being the 'official' opposition - should want to have the highest number of seats so it has solid authority in forming a government. However 'informal' a pact could be, general elections are a numbers game; in that the Party with the highest number of seats wins (so long as it's a majority of these). And if a majority isn't obtained, then formal coalitions are made in order to achieve that all-important majority. Labour tried to rely on the Liberal Democrats to help form a government in 2010 - that went so well, the UK has had Tory-led governments since. If there were to be another hung parliament, and the Tories offered the Lib Dems something more tempting than Labour, there'd be no hesitation; the party in blue will keep the keys to 10 Downing Street.
If anything, 2022 is Starmer's golden year to use all his power to defeat Labour's true oppositions. The Conservatives' only concern is having its vote split with Brexit Party and Reclaim Party - in 2019, that wasn't a significant issue and, unless the Tories' Brexit stance dramatically changes, this won't be an issue in 2024. Tory voters, as a whole, vote Tory come what may, even the so-called 'pro freedom fighting' and anti-sleaze supporters who express their empty anger on social media. Those sentiments will be forgotten when a general election is called.
Labour's challenge is bigger - will SNP, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrats and Green Party voters opt for Labour in a similar way to what we saw in 2017 (based on vote shares)? In short, no. Firstly, Jeremy Corbyn isn't just not running as Labour leader, but if there were to be an election tomorrow, he's running as an Independent candidate, because of the ongoing dispute over his handling of anti-Semitism. That is a massive elephant in the Party's room. As a result, its membership has reportedly dropped, unions like Unite are walking away from supporting the Party and while some previously disengaged Labour supporters and politicians are returning, it's not at levels which will make Starmer sit comfortably.
It's important for Starmer to realise that reminiscing the late 1990s - 'the good old days' to some - isn't so simple. He can count on Wales, but in Scotland - regardless of whether its people support independence or not - will vote SNP. Where Labour has lost support in England (i.e., not London and the North West), I'm not convinced enough voters in the 'right' geographic areas will want to vote red once more, unless the Party changes its tune on UK's relationship with the European Union, as well as its stance on contentious issues like immigration and NHS reform. I don't suggest Labour should alter either.
As much as the likes of Peter Mandelson can get excited for putting 'Labour' and 'government' in the same context, this won't become a reality anytime soon, unless the Party unite and become free of scandal. Regardless of whether Johnson will run again as Tory leader by 2024 (I expect he will*), the Conservatives will have the upper hand, unless millions of voters dramatically turn up for Labour, and Labour alone - in the 2024 climate, I'm not so sure. Starmer can offer a bold vision that inspires and unites every corner of Britain all he wants. But to seriously achieve that, before doing anything else, he needs to inspire and unite the broad church he's inherited. He's still got my backing to lead this.
* I say this because I don't see any suitable Conservative politician who can succeed Johnson. The closest to leadership material are probably either Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt. Despite the hype and recent promotion to Foreign Secretary, I'd be honestly surprised Liz Truss is the next Tory leader.
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