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| Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden (Image: Politico) |
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has been going on for two months now - of course, two months too long. Thousands from both sides have lost lives and it sadly doesn't appear to end any time soon. Despite attempts to agree ceasefires and a peace process, these are often overshadowed by threats and ultimatums. Ukraine don't trust Russia and Russia is frustrated by the Ukrainian resistance.
While events on the frontline continue to dominate headlines, political leaders are trying to steer the narrative. Russia's Vladimir Putin is doing an excellent job in manipulating his people (both in government and the public) into thinking that they're they victims and that this invasion is justified. Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy is desperate for physical resources. From his pleas, he's expressed frustration with Europe for not supplying, but praised Boris Johnson for 'helping more' and the US for giving him what he wants.
But arms won't stop the war, only Putin can. I don't want to delve too much into suggesting solutions to stopping him as I've argued this before. My thoughts haven't changed - if it's proven that he's committed war crimes, what's stopping someone from charging him with such and sending him to The Hague to be held accountable? Aung San Suu Kyi was, a few years back, for the atrocities in Myanmar. As a result, she'd been booted out of government and is currently spending time behind bars. She can claim her innocence all she likes, but by not condemning and stopping those who killed thousands of Rohingyas under her care, blood was on her hands.
Putin will only start seeing his actions in a serious light when something impacts him personally. Still, sanctions are imposed - including on his daughters - to little effect. US President Joe Biden has the right idea by calling him a 'war criminal' and to face a war crimes' trial. It's a pity that he and his aides are on different pages because if they stuck to the President, other leaders could follow suit. Austria's Chancellor, Karl Nehammer also had the right idea by actually meeting Putin himself, but sadly his country doesn't have the clout to truly make a difference. Before Johnson and UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were handed a ban from entering Russia, they should have visited Moscow, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Biden.
Stronger diplomacy from European leaders is crucial to deescalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia. While I appreciate Zelenskyy's frustrations towards their inactions, I completely understand their predicament. For years, we've relied so much on Russian gas and oil and not done anything to reduce this, because of our blind assurance that while Putin is dodgy, it seemed unimaginable that he would go far enough to bomb his neighbour. They should have spotted the signs for years, but with the choice of reliable gas and oil coming from Russia or Saudi Arabia (another country with an undesired human rights track record), the former had often been seen as the lesser of two evils and tongues were bitten. Isn't hindsight wonderful?
The plan to gradually phase out Russian oil and gas use is the right one, however, long-term economic planning is required. How far can we truly go in shutting Russia and Russians from global affairs? Working with Russia is thrown out of the window today, but what about the future? We hope that Russians vote wisely and without fear by March 2024 when its next general election is scheduled, yet, that's two whole years away. We'd hope the invasion is a distant memory by then, and, to go one further, an election can be held well before (once Putin is given his marching orders; I wait with naïve bated breath). Once he's history, and the successor is someone half decent, Russia will be an asset once more. They've too important resources and influence for lesser developed countries to ignore, even after their economy collapses. Their people need support and guidance too. It isn't their fault their leader is a war criminal. They didn't vote for that.
He may not see it now, but Zelenskyy has the European Union as a key ally, and Ukraine will strongly benefit from joining the organisation, once confirmed. And he may want to see the reality of Johnson's inaction in helping Ukrainians settle in the UK. The visa process is far too long and complicated when other countries are proactively easing access. It's vital for them not to be so exposed in places like Poland where their safety is all but totally guaranteed.
Changing tactics is needed. The invasion's narrative has been the same since February; in that Ukraine is resisting the Russians from occupying key cities and Zelenskyy is taking the same stance in needing weapons. He can't do it alone and, with his lack of political experience and muscle, he needs powerful, career politicians to help with diplomatic efforts. He's an independent who went from having very few allies due to both former US President Donald Trump being, well, Donald Trump, and corruption by previous Kyiv administrations, to having almost unconditional support from most corners of the planet. His 'asks' need to be more strategic. Attempts for peace with Russia failed in the past, but then, he was acting alone. No longer isolated, now is his chance to truly shine.
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