Euro 2012: Spain strong favourites but could Germany snatch the trophy?

Fernando Torres, Euro 2008 (Image: theguardian.co.uk)

The league season in most parts of Europe may be over however Friday will be the start of Euro 2012 - a competition where sixteen successfully qualified teams in Europe go head-to-head to grab a prestigious prize. This year's tournament is like no other as since Spain won in 2008, the continent has suffered considerably due to the Euro currency crisis. Greece are edging closer to being part of the drachma again while Spain could also exit the Euro in the near future. Europe has entered into the world of the unknown but hopefully, we can safely say that the football will become a distraction, far from it.

I have written about the problems and issues football face in previous blog posts, most recently about gender discrimination. However in Ukraine and Poland, the countries hosting Euro 2012, have a racism problem. You can say that this is the case in Britain with last season's Luis Suarez/ Patrice Evra debate and the John Terry/ Anton Ferdinand issue which is to be resolved next month. But in the host nations, the problem lies on the supporters who use Nazi salutes to support their teams and physically assault those who have different ethnic backgrounds to their own. These are just some examples which have been exploited by BBC's investigative reporters in the broadcaster's Panorama series.

The scenes shown on that particular Panorama episode was quite disturbing however, it offers little solutions. It gave the public an impression that Europe's football governing body UEFA and Ukraine and Poland's FA aren't going to do anything effective about it while English supporters should boycott an event which would attract hundreds-of-millions across the world. To me, that entire documentary taught me is that there are problems in club level and that international football should have little issues. My suggestion is for people travelling to Poland or Ukraine to be vigilant when in stadiums and concentrate on enjoying the matches instead of looking fearful. Don't be too bothered by the Nazi salutes. None of the British spectators seem too concerned when Cardiff City FC "do the Ayatollah" when praising their players, when the action actually is a form of salute to support former Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini. As for the racists, yes, they should be kicked out and banned from stadiums for good. They have no right to watch games which unite families. It gives people the impression that football is ugly, and not beautiful.

Broadcasters and newspapers like to find problems in different competitions. Take Azerbaijan's Eurovision for example - there are political problems there but it didn't overshadow the contest as much as people feared apart from the aftermath where some reporters from various nations struggled to get back to their countries. I certainly hope we can enjoy Euro 2012, whether it is at home or in Ukraine and Poland. Meanwhile, let me give you my mini-preview of the teams involved in this fascinating competition.

Roy Hodgson (Image: The Football Project)

It's always best to start with England. Every tournament they take part in, there is a lot of pressure on them to do very well i.e. go beyond the quarter-finals and in the process, not lose in a penalty shootout. This year, they have more pressure with the so-called controversial appointment of Roy Hodgson and an over-growing list of injured players. Frank Lampard, Gary Cahill and Gareth Barry to name a few whilst Wayne Rooney will miss the first two group games through suspension. They are short in numbers and their campaign is overshadowed by the inclusion of John Terry and the exclusion of Rio Ferdinand.

Some argue that Terry, who lost his captaincy last year because of claims he was racist towards Rio Ferdinand's brother, Anton during a match between QPR and Chelsea in October 2011 where the former won 1-0. According to Rio's agent, his client is not happy he's not going to eastern Europe and play football but Mr. Ferdinand has said this week he would support England all the way, which nobody would question anyhow. Terry is one of those who doesn't get too distracted from his off-the-pitch antics and his appearance hasn't affected the England team either in the friendly games. He is one of those players, almost admirable in this sense but if he's guilty for racial abuse, that would be the final straw for both Hodgson and the FA.

How do I think England will do in this year's Euros? People are expecting them not to do well because of the injuries and the difficulty of the group. They face France, who in tournaments can either play fantastic or terrible, Sweden, who England have faced in this stage before and both are tightly matched and Ukraine, the host nation. I feel they will cope well in the group and progress past the quarter-finals, beating Italy. However, I feel they will go a hurdle too far losing to Germany after extra time in the semi-final. As I've mentioned before, England fans must remain faithful towards its team this year. With the other teams in group D, I think that France will draw all their games and therefore miss out on their quarter-final dream. I feel that co-host Ukraine are to qualify due to the extent of their support and Sweden will not perform well.

Let's look at the other groups. They all seem to be very tight and I can see some of the "smaller" nations thrive. Take group A for example. Host nation Poland kick off Euro 2012 on Friday evening with a match against Greece. I can see both teams doing well in this group and can tip them to reach the quarter-finals over Czech Republic and Russia. Poland have a lot of support behind them due to the fact they are co-host while Greece can work best under-pressure. They won Euro 2004 with little pressure and they want their supporters to celebrate something, taking their minds off the recent political struggles. I don't think either them or Poland would go beyond the quarter-final stages but I feel they would do enough to qualify.

Some may argue that group B is considered "the group of death" and they may have a valid point. It's a juicy group with Germany and Holland in the same group followed by Portugal and Denmark. However, I can only see Germany thriving while Denmark suffer which leads to only Holland and Portugal fighting for that final qualification place. Wonderfully enough, they face each other on the last group game. Although I can see that being a 2-2 draw, I can see Holland scraping through by goal difference. If Portugal had the better goal difference, which would completely change the complexion of the Euros.

It is group C I consider as "the group of death". Although Spain are considered strong favourites, they are without striker David Villa who is out through injury and Fernando Torres's form is a completely contrast to what it was four years ago when his winning goal against Germany won Spain Euro 2008. In their group sees Italy, who seem unpredictable in major competitions, like the French side in addition to Ireland and Croatia. I can see Spain going through but with seven points and Italy scraping through with four. I can sense Ireland will do rather well considering people thinking of the worst possible scenario when the groups were announced last December. I predict Croatia win-less and will lose to Ireland in the opening game.

  (Image: Business Finder)

So who do I think will win Euro 2012? I feel it's Germany's year. I think it's going to be a Germany v Spain final but in the end, I don't think Spain will manage as well as they had in Euro 2008 and the last World Cup in 2010. Germany coach, Joachim Löw has developed a great side, bonding both youth and the experienced very well and think they will pick up the Euro 2012 trophy for the first time since 1996, winning it for the fourth time and making chancellor Angela Merkel celebrate in front of UK Prime Minister David Cameron, contrasting to the Champions League final celebrations last month (image right).

As it stands, Germany is second favourite and book makers are backing a Spain v Germany final. However, football is a very unpredictable sport and that is one of the reasons I am very much looking forward to this year's championships.