The highest stakes election

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer (Image: The Telegraph)

The UK general election on Thursday 4th July has come at a time where the country is at a sticky crossroads. Never has its citizens felt so out of touch with politics, not helped by a government who had asked millions of undecided voters, with just six weeks' notice, to head to their local polling station and make a huge, collective decision. Even Conservative ministers were reportedly surprised when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a summer election when it was widely anticipated we'd see one in the autumn.

But we should have seen this swift call coming. Sunak spoke to the nation from a very damp Downing Street on the day inflation went down to 2.3% (his target was to get it to 2% by election day). He also wanted planes with 'illegal' migrants headed to Rwanda, and he got that approved by Parliament in April 2024. With key 'pledges' through the door, you sense he felt buoyant enough to say let the people decide whether he and his government can take these, and other policies, forward for another five years, sooner rather than later.

If the polls are to by - and I am inclined to take them with a large, cautious pinch of salt, even if they are unanimous at present - Sunak may as well pack his bags now. The Labour Party, under Sir Keir Starmer, looks set to snatch the keys off him in convincing style. Actually, the Conservatives look to do so badly, the party in blue may not be the official opposition come 5th July.

To those getting giddy by the prospect of a dramatic Tory downfall, don't get too excited just yet. Even as I write this, so much can happen between now and 4th July, and ultimately, all those millions of people who say they will vote Labour (or 'anyone but Conservative') must turn up on the day.

And I feel the excitement should be contained that much further as I make my one and only prediction, and no, it's not "who is going to win." I cannot possibly guess that, truthfully, even despite the polls saying "It's Labour, stupid." What I can say is that I anticipate a greater turnout for the 'smaller' parties or independent candidates than what experts are currently suggesting. We are starting to see that being discussed more in recent days, with Reform UK expected to do well. Whether this translates to seats, it is too difficult to say. Regardless, Reform, and others, will be ruffling feathers across the country.

Strangely, I encourage this (not voting for Reform UK, of course, good heavens). Conservatives and Labour have taken for granted their status in Westminster. Since the last general election in December 2019, we saw a Tory government completely mishandle a Covid-19 pandemic where more than 200,000 Brits died, many of whom arguably preventable after a misplaced strategy around care homes and lack of coherence with the devolved nations. Not only that, but the UK binned its European Union membership meaning the country had to practically start from scratch on key foreign investment and shared intelligence - and that has, in part, translated to a cost of living crisis that has left millions to choose between heating and eating. Another contributor of this crisis has been down to Russia's invasion of Ukraine which Sunak and one of his predecessors, Boris Johnson, came up with billions-of-pounds they didn't have to encourage a war that has no sight, or intention, of ending.

In addition to that, Sunak - and Starmer - had completely mishandled the humanitarian crisis in Palestine. In Gaza, at least 37,000 people have been killed by Israeli forces in retaliation of Hamas' terrorist attacks on 7th October 2023, actions initially supported by mentioned leaders. The bombardment led by Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu has led to major governments around the world, Britain included, spending a pretty penny on aid that many Palestinians cannot get full access to.

Sunak, upon reflection, has made bad decisions after bad decisions. He can defend the furlough scheme during the pandemic all he likes, or say that the economy is under relative control now, however, along the way, Britain has suffered, and people will continue to suffer from Tory own goals for years to come. The UK is a second world country; an insignificant global partner, and poverty and debt at unmanageable levels.

Starmer has mishandled his own battles too. Like his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn who was smothered and blinded by his advisors widely dismissed as 'far left' and 'anti-Semitic', Starmer is smothered and blinded by his advisors dismissed as 'Tory-lite' and 'pro-Israel'. While I truly believe Corbyn wasn't 'too left wing' or 'anti-Semitic' as much as Starmer isn't 'too right wing' and 'pro-Israel', actions by the current leader haven't helped his case. When I was a Labour member in 2020, I voted him on the understanding that he could unite devout Corbyn supporters and ideology with those from the party inclined towards supporting Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's way of thinking - embracing its 'broad church'. It had been achievable in the past and I thought Starmer was the man to bring that dynamic back. 

I instantly regretted my vote the minute he booted Corbyn out of the party, and he now faces a battle in the North Islington seat against the former leader now competing as an independent for the first time. Certainly, Corbyn didn't help himself. He lost his whip for his response to an independent report which found anti-Semitic practices in the party under his nose. However, I felt it was a disproportionate and unnecessary punishment and, for me, Starmer fell for the narrative where he needed to appease a proportion of his party who wanted any reason to get rid of Corbyn come what may.

I have also been ill-impressed by Starmer's handling of Diane Abbott's recent position as a Labour candidate. Thankfully, she is, but that saga could have been avoided completely, and not lasted for days. The investigation into her controversial article, where she effectively compared certain racisms being worse than others, was borderline farcical. It should have been an open-and-closed case rather than taking 14 months. She quickly apologised (rightly so) and then received a torrent of abuse, including from a Tory donor who wanted her shot, without proper safeguarding from Labour's leadership.

You would think that Starmer taking supposed 'tough action' would have helped improve the harmony within the Jewish community in the UK. Sadly not. Reports of anti-Semitism has risen, sparked by what's going on in Palestine, but also, subsequent domestic political decision-making by government and opposition. And nothing has been done to ease their concerns. Believe it or not, the viable leader to have given the Jewish community that much-needed harmony was Corbyn himself.

So with all that in mind, plus the shocking demotion of Rosena Allin-Khan (Tooting MP and also an A&E nurse, so knows a thing or two about what the NHS needs) from Shadow Mental Health Minister to the backbench, where she is tragically under-utilised, as well as the party's complete 180-degree view change on Britain's calamitous EU exit, I cannot bring myself to voting Labour this time around.

This decision is a surprise for me too, knowing that Starmer is increasingly likely (again, according to the polls, this is not my prediction) to be the UK's next Prime Minister. However, his questionable calls as opposition has me doubting his choices if he were chief. We've seen with his initial response to the current Israel/Palestine crisis that his way of thinking is not much different to Sunak's.

My not voting for Labour on a national level (I've no present qualms voting the party at local/Welsh elections) is a shame because my MP - who is a red - is very good and I am sure she will win comfortably too. But that won't deter me from looking elsewhere and neither should that put anyone else off if they think them voting for another party in a so-called 'safe' seat is pointless. While I am one of Carol Vorderman's biggest fans, I wholeheartedly disagree with her on voting tactically.

Voting tactically is a dangerous game to play. Its intention may result in 'unseating every Tory', yet we truly need democracy working at its best - and for this to be the case, we need people to vote for who they want for. Doing so is the truest reflection of where the country is at; the only official poll we need. Whoever wins the election, the next Prime Minister will need to take the vote share seriously. Parliamentary seats and the number of votes doesn't always translate, but the latter is often vital to understand the nation's mood. Voting on the basis of getting someone else out may result in a more incompetent candidate being elected - and that is risky considering trust in politicians is incredibly low.

For those who have read my blog posts from the beginning will be surprised to discover that I intend to vote Liberal Democrats this time around. Yes, the same party who slept with the Tories for five years which we can argue started the disastrous 14-year rulership that we're enduring today. However, based on where my politics are today, the party in yellow has handled the contentious issues I've mentioned above the best. It acknowledges Brexit as hindering Britain's prospects and, along with the other smaller parties including Plaid Cymru, Green and SNP, quickly called for a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine. They knew exactly what Netanyahu was capable of, while Sunak and Starmer turned a blind eye.

Plaid was another viable voting option for me, however, I have concerns that it won't have the clout to represent Wales on a UK-national scale the way SNP can in Scotland (even if SNP lose ground in this election, it is still expected to be the party with the most seats in Scotland). Plaid isn't an influential party within the Senedd and I feel that needs to be addressed before it can be thought as an organisation that means business in Westminster. And I don't yet agree that Wales should work towards being an independent country - sadly, Brexit set that vision back by years. But I'm glad that Plaid, SNP and Liberal Democrats agree that Britain should return to the European Single Market and my hope is that they unite to fight for that cause after 4th July. Sunak or Starmer need that drummed into their ears, whoever is Prime Minister then.

But also, I feel Sir Ed Davey is hitting the right notes as Liberal Democrat leader. He has a compelling, relatable and heartfelt backstory which suggests he gets health and social care which are in dying need of reform, and while some may snigger at his stunts, I think they make him human. And he is certainly no Nick Clegg, who I had strong reservations against before the 2010 election when everyone seemed enamoured by him.

If Davey can, however, more openly hold his hands up about his role in the Post Office/Horizon scandal, which led to workers seeking justice while he was Business Minister responsible for the postal affairs - and his role in privatising Royal Mail during this time (it was officially privatised a year after he moved on from that post), he'd be in a much better position. This is his golden opportunity to further present this honesty, no matter how bad it appears. I think he'll receive understanding if he was under the strict instruction of more senior Tory ministers at the time, if indeed that was the case.

I don't want the outcome of this election to be a downer - even if the Tories defy every poll and pull of a comeback of epic proportions. We need to be optimistic as we've been in despair for so long. Lower taxes sound great but I'd rather a focus on ensuring food and fuel prices are kept lower. Whoever is the new leader, will need to quickly recognise that, for instance, to reduce 'illegal' immigration, it should stop investing in areas which fuels it, like conflicts. They will need to prioritise in getting Britain back to prosperity and head to the second part of the 2020s on a note where people start seeing positive economic news translated to their pockets. Nobody can afford another five years of financial turbulence.