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| Left to right: John Swinney, Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf (Image: BBC News) |
Scottish politics has seen considerable turbulence in recent weeks. This has delighted commentators and politicians who oppose the idea of devolution or the Scottish National Party (SNP) more generally. I mean, after all, the UK general election is just weeks away, any excuse to try and deter the progress of Scotland's largest party. And any excuse to highlight the nation's problems and say that it shouldn't have more independent powers.
Personally, I am more pro-devolution than against. I see its merits but I equally appreciate the need for the concept to reform. The problem has been for years, devolved nations and cities are largely led by parties who aren't the ruling party in Westminster so, naturally, relationships between the Conservatives and leaders in Wales, Manchester, Liverpool, London, and elsewhere, including now Birmingham (which has recently welcomed a Labour Mayor for the first time), has become strained. We saw during the Covid-19 pandemic how they weren't working constructively, so the party in blue will do what it can to pounce on any crises any of those devolved administrations are going through.
Scotland has been the prime target for the Conservatives, and Labour, for some time. Over the past decade or so, the SNP has thrived north of the English border. It overcame a failed independence bid in 2014 and setbacks out of its hands such as European Union membership, where the party - and Scotland as a whole - convincingly backed Remain. Despite this, the party is a dominant force, having the greatest number of Scottish MPs in Westminster and is the ruling organisation in Holyrood. Labour and the Conservatives often play second, third, or sometimes even fourth fiddle, as nationalism conquers all.
However, the past year has seen the SNP tested in rather unprecedented ways. In March 2023, Nicola Sturgeon felt the need to resign as First Minister, reportedly over her role in the apparent mishandling of a financial pot which was meant to be used for another independence referendum. We are led to believe that the money instead was partly spent on an expensive campervan. Her husband, and former SNP Chief Executive, Peter Murrell, was recently charged over this, meaning the saga will not go away anytime soon.
Elsewhere, Sturgeon's successor, Humza Yousaf, had found himself in various pickles. It started with the passing of a Bill where, amongst other things, transgender men and women were protected against 'hate crime'. Of course, that is the measure shouted about the loudest. Those opposed to the law say that women aren't getting the same protection and are therefore in a more vulnerable place. That being said, I'm sure it'd be implemented fairly and that the Bill itself is a sensible approach to ensuring the safety of all citizens. Sadly, the system had already been abused by people clogging the 'hate crime complaints' inbox on day one.
In addition to this, the Green Party - who signed a cooperation agreement with the SNP after the Scottish elections in 2021 - announced it was to step away from it and sided with the Conservatives in a vote of no confidence against Yousaf. It took issue with the fact Yousaf made decisions that went against the agreement, including the watering down of key climate targets. Labour, meanwhile, went a step further by holding a no confidence vote against the entire Scottish Parliament, which was unsuccessful. Yousaf felt cornered and his authority was undermined, so he resigned as First Minister. John Swinney has now taken over, with a tough task to make sure things are calm enough to ensure the opposition parties aren't calling for his head too.
Upon following these dramatic developments, the cynic in me leapt to the SNP's defence. UK-wide, Labour has momentum after decent local, mayor and Police and Crime Commissioner election results, and hoping it continues in the upcoming general election. The Conservatives want to do anything to show political muscle, no matter how wimpish the party's tactics appear. Quite tragically, both are pure opportunists and what they're doing isn't just tacky, but I cannot help but feel this will all backfire on them. Voters in Scotland can look beyond the faux outrage as they had done in the aftermath of the independence and EU referendums.
Combining the SNP's crises and Labour's good results, the latest polls look positive for the party in red. While the nationalists look set to lose seats, we cannot say for certain that the predictions will prove to be true by general election day on 4th July 2024. These polls have underestimated the SNP in the past. It is also worth noting that the new constituency boundary changes will mean that the number of MPs in Scotland is to be reduced from 59 to 57, proving more difficult to predict any outcome.
Also, I can only imagine a significant proportion of Scotland's voters will not want their choices questioned by the big cheeses south of their border. Many of them acknowledge the challenges within the SNP's grasp, such as health and education, which have shown some signs of dwindled progress. Yet, they equally appreciate that the nation hasn't been given sufficient additional financial support from Westminster to help the Scottish Parliament tackle these issues. Other devolved nations and cities have also suffered, and poorer hospitals, schools and infrastructure have become a nationwide problem.
The Conservative government has spent so much time inflating the issues of the devolved nations rather than treating them as adults. From David Cameron in 2010 to Rishi Sunak today, successive Prime Ministers would rather not work with SNP or Labour, so instead give them little hush money and pretend that the problems in the devolved nations and cities are purely their problem and not Westminster's.
The failure to develop any meaningful relationship will backfire. We may see a scenario by this summer that the ruling parties in Westminster and Holyrood remain the same and we are back to square one. My message to their respected leaders is a quick one - cut the stubbornness, sulking and ignorance. Do that, and devolution will thrive, and the UK as a whole will benefit.
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