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| Rishi Sunak's problems are how big? (Image: The Sun Daily) |
It isn't an overstatement to say that the situation in Westminster is even more volatile now than when I last wrote on here a few short weeks ago. Days after it, Liz Truss was given the boot - she was Britain's Prime Minister for less than two months. In comes Rishi Sunak, who lost to Truss in the Conservative leadership campaign just weeks previous. The job quite conveniently landed on his lap. He knew that he'd have a honeymoon period, after being praised for his accurate predictions of the markets' reaction to Truss's economic plan.
Sunak's appointment has been met with a somewhat surprising range of reactions; while Tory MPs are keen to move on from the Party's rocky episode, Conservative supporting commentators were split; some believing it's a 'globalist' coup (which is laughable). Away from that, the views remain blunt. Due to the nature of how he got the top job - in that he didn't get enough votes from 180,000 Tory members the first time around and he went to this election uncontested - many are demanding for a general election.
Talks of a general election will never go away, and Sunak is in no hurry of announcing one, urging calm and unity. He's also assured his colleagues that he'll deliver close to everything in the manifesto the Tories delivered for the last general election. In addition to that, he's got the cost of living crisis to tackle; we'll eagerly await his budget on 17th November to see how he'll do this. There's also climate change where he's had an unconvincing start with, dithering about his COP27 summit appearance and demoted his environment cabinet members. These moves are a contrast to what the UK had committed in COP26 in Glasgow last year. And remember, he's used his daughters to try and prove he's a green-minded Conservative.
But above all right now, the focus is seemingly on immigration. This has been a contentious issue over the past 20 years, and it's probably one of the main reasons why people voted to Leave the European Union in 2016. There was a naïve belief that by not being under the influence of EU laws, the UK can control its borders and reduce net-migration. In recent weeks, we've seen a record number of migrants risking their lives by travelling on boats across the English Channel from France to England. It appears that the borders can't be controlled post-Brexit after all, which is of little surprise considering that Britain isn't landlocked.
The fact that so many are opting to enter the UK in this way should be seen as a concern, and I feel the Home Office could spend its time to properly investigate why thousands of people feel the need to make this tough journey without using the traditional legal routes. Instead, Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is stirring the pot by calling recent events an 'invasion', allowing speculation that these migrants are young, privileged Albanian men who enter the country to join drug gangs. Her attitude reminds me slightly of Pascal Sauvage (watch the film Johnny English to understand the reference, which is becoming a touch closer to reality).
The only truth in that is that a higher percentage of migrants coming via boats are from the Central European country. It isn't a country you'd associate with its people desperate to leave, but it's a trend the UK has seen over the past couple of years. Perhaps they're not a fan of its politics, with the country's previous President, Ilir Meta, recently impeached for 'bias and violence' and was accused of violating 16 articles of the Albanian constitution (though, this was later overturned). He was replaced in June 2022 by Bakram Begaj in an election that was decided by 78 politicians.
Perhaps these migrants aren't a fan of being 'most at risk of poverty or social exclusion' in Europe, with average monthly salary being at just £327 per month, and rent being almost as high as that. Perhaps they're not a fan of questionable policing methods either. We can argue Albania is fine but the only people with genuine data about this are those in the Home Office. While Braverman is new to her role, it's never too early to start work anticipating what countries are at risk of their people migrating in their masses, and why this may be.
You can argue that the Home Office isn't doing enough to tackle this issue. The fact lots of people are entering the UK by flimsy boats is distressing as it is; speculating about who they are using hostile language is not the way to ease the situation. In fact, Albania's Prime Minister, Edi Rama, has slammed Braverman for her words. The fact they've not spoken to each other in a constructive way is baffling. And it's equally baffling to hear that Britain and France are doing very little to solve matters other than to say that they want to do more. I'm afraid I can only think of one reason for this debacle - Brexit.
Prior to January 2020, when the UK actually left the European Union, a relatively small number of migrants coming by boats and we understood the hardship of those from countries like Syria and Afghanistan - they had to flee war and intense suppression. We never really saw the impact Brexit would have on this type of migration immediately because of Covid-19; borders across Europe were tight. Now restrictions brought on by the pandemic are lifted, we're only now seeing how the UK Home Office could truly cope with immigration requests. Without full access to European intelligence and relying on its own resources, the system is completely exposed. What is also clear is that the controversial Rwanda policy has failed as a deterrent. It was meant to put people off from travelling to England in this way, it's done the opposite.
Labour's response is to show empathy and hold the government to account. However, it feels a little too comfortable and I fear the softer approach won't go far enough to convince undecided voters. Leader Kier Starmer just weeks ago was in fairy tale land, with polls showing that the Party was going to wipe the Tories out of power. Now Sunak's in, the polls aren't looking as favourable for the Party in red.
I'll sound like an broken 'Remoaner' record when I say this, but to show greater opposition, Starmer needs to change his most recent stance on Brexit. Leaving the EU isn't working out, and despite anyone's best efforts, no Prime Minister will be able make it work either without enabling closer ties to the Single Market and Custom's Union. Surely, he knows it's playing a significant role in this particular problem? Unless the UK government actually has a backbone and agree something constructive with the French or EU more generally, the migrant crisis will just worsen.
Generally speaking, there isn't a strong enough voice in Westminster to truly get Britain talking about gaining close ties to the EU. You can argue that the Scottish National Party (SNP) provide this, but its focus is on Scotland, and leader Nicola Sturgeon is busy campaigning for country's independence from the UK.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm backing the Liberal Democrats to completely own this debate and come up with nuanced arguments about the benefits of closer relations with the EU, even without needing to be a member. Leader Sir Ed Davey has been working quietly behind the scenes to give the Party new lease of life - for example, it's performed well in recent by-elections and council elections. It's working hard to move on from the dark days of 2010 to 2015 when then leader Nick Clegg practically sold his credibility by forming a government coalition with the Tories and in doing so sacrifice key policy areas its members were so passionate about, such as scrapping student fees (which is now at more than £9,000 per annum).
There's currently little chance of the Lib Dems forming another coalition with the Conservatives. The Tories don't have a David Cameron figure at the top to lure those in the so-called 'centre'. Sunak is a consistent believer of the Leave rhetoric of isolationism and he's formed a cabinet that largely believe this too. Conservative commentators think Sunak is a champion of globalism, but that's truly tosh. If he was a globalist, he wouldn't have thought twice to rub shoulders with world leaders at COP27. He'd appoint a team who would be proactively communicating with France and Albania and form partnerships to ease the migrant crisis. He'd also discourage the narrative that they're coming to the UK for a knees up. He'd also already have a plan to settle the nerves in the devolved nations - he's had enough time to do this. Sorry, critics, he's an isolationist alright. And if Labour can hone in on that, it can show the opposition that many people are craving. If Starmer misses that opportunity, it's only a matter of time when Davey takes the leap.
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