Whatever the UK says about France, it won't touch Macron

Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron (Image: Human Rights Watch)

I'm not sure if it's a big deal for governments in countries other than the UK and France, but the fact both are stuck in a stubborn diplomatic wrangle at the moment is quite significant, and those nations should probably be concerned. The squabbles are basically over what's happening on the English Channel, circling around two areas; fish and refugees.

Fish has been a contentious subject for what has felt like an eternity, and tensions have escalated since the UK left the European Union. Like any other sea, parts are controlled by different countries, and with the English Channel, applications must be made in order to access certain areas. The process doesn't sound like rocket science but of course, the small print can be interpreted in various ways and while the UK may withdraw licences, France will inevitably claim there were no justifications for those decisions. These finest of margins could always be settled by having adult conversations, but clearly aren't. 

The topic of fish will continue to rumble on, but the main headlines at the moment are being steered to a different part of the Channel. Reports have highlighted 'record' numbers of people are risking their lives by crossing from France to the Kent and Sussex coasts, having made the long and tiresome trek from their life or death situations at home. I wrote about this earlier in the year and, up until recently, the narrative hadn't changed, until the moment when the news broke that at least 27 tragically lost their lives after a boat sank, drowning men, women and children. 

This tragedy sent alarm bells ringing and you'd think the governments of these respected countries can sit together and come up with some viable solutions. That was going to happen, until Boris Johnson wrote a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron, suggesting what France should be doing to tackle the crisis, and posted it on Twitter as opposed to keeping all communications behind closed doors (as any professional would do). That really annoyed Macron who decided to cancel that particular vital meeting.

These arguments are so pity and insensitive, this public spat does the refugees such a disservice. UK wants France to do more, France says the UK should just accept the boats; it's juvenile behaviour. I don't get the impression they appreciate how challenging this situation is to solve. Whatever happens, thousands of people will continue to enter Europe in this way for years to come, unless governments in countries like Afghanistan, Syria, Kurdistan, Iran, Iraq and parts of Africa stop creating a culture of fear where their citizens feel that if they did anything, their lives are put in danger. So, while this won't happen in the short term, the UK and France have no choice but to liaise with each other and ask the United Nations to pull its sock up.

I'm the type who looks on both sides and think that the UK and France have equal responsibility in terms of both crises I mention above. Despite this, Emmanuel Macron won't mind being stubborn for the time being as although he faces a presidential election in April, his approval rating is at a steady 40% - honestly not bad for a leader at the helm for a full term - and the economy is pretty much at pre-Covid levels, same can't be said for the UK, Italy or Germany. And after all the tensions with the unions early into his presidency, he's even halted his pension reform plans that caused months-long strikes and protests. Okay, its approach to Covid has created unrest in its overseas territories like Guadeloupe and Martinique, but it's nothing Macron cannot handle.

This sounds all rosy and Macron probably has the right to be chirpy. But I'm sure he's aware of the potential challenges the next five months could bring, and that recent history isn't on the side of sitting French presidents in terms of re-election performance. Around him, he's lost his closest ally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is days away from stepping back from politics. Olaf Scholz is the incoming Chancellor after successfully negotiating a 'traffic light coalition'. Reports suggest this shift is good news for Macron as he and Scholz appear to be on the same page when it comes to the EU and they plan to meet as leaders over the coming weeks.

In terms of who Macron is facing in the forthcoming election, you may argue that France has stronger, higher profile candidates this time around. Yes, Marine Le Pen is back like a bad smell, but we now see Michel Barnier in the picture; he's a 'moderate conservative' who pledges to be firm on immigration and is pro-EU (remember, he negotiated the Brexit deal on behalf of Brussels). His campaign so far is highly publicised and while he may not get enough votes to run France, he'll ruffle feathers, and may split the vote between Macron and Le Pen. How much damage he'll cause, we'll find out over the coming five months.

Right now, Macron has little to worry about. Yet, I know (and deep down he knows), he could do without having a spat with the UK. He may not be for turning, but both must compromise. An annoyed UK isn't good for France, and neither is an annoyed France good for the UK.

* Worth noting here that days out after publishing this, Michel Barnier announced he is no longer running for President, which, in reflection, is yet another boost for Mr Macron.