UK set for Noel Edmonds-type 'Brexit'

Noel Edmonds on 'Deal or No Deal' set (Image: Metro.co.uk)

Twenty-two identical boxes, a quarter-of-a-million-pounds, there's just one question: Deal or No Deal.

The Channel Four hit daytime TV show may have been cancelled nearly two years to this day, it's crazy to think that this question - while, apparently, in a completely different context - is still buzzing in people's minds. I added the word 'apparently' there, because there are genuine similarities between Noel Edmond's lovechild, that graced our screens for eleven years, and Theresa May's lovechild, that is boiling our brains at this very moment.

Think about it; every weekday, Deal or No Deal invited 22 eccentric contestants to the show, all vowing to hit the jackpot. Each individual is given an opportunity to take the spotlight. When it's their episode, box-by-box, they reveal their compromise - the chance of not winning each box's worth. Along the way, that nominated contestant receive phone calls from a 'banker' who gives him, or her, an offer based on how the game is going. If that person chose to 'deal' to an offer, they win that regardless of what's in the box randomly selected for them. If they say 'no deal' all episode, they win what's revealed in their chosen box.

The show was straightforward, trust me. For my international readers, you must have heard of Deal of No Deal too. Besides, a 'Deal or No Deal' in some capacity was aired at around 50 countries at one point. It even made Meghan Markle - now Duchess of Sussex - a household name, for crying out loud!

I can only imagine what Deal or No Deal would look like if Theresa May was to be a contestant. I can only picture the 22 boxes...

1.  New Prime Minister	2. Sign Interim EU deal	3. Canada-style exit	4. Call general election for before March deadline
5. No Irish border	6. Let USA decide	7. Second referendum (People's Vote)	8. Delay Article 50 process by up to a year
9. Full single market access	10.  Chequers deal	11.   Let Boris decide	12.   Norway-style exit
13.   Deal which leads to Scottish independence	14.   Deal which means only England and Wales leaves EU	15.   No deal	16.   Let Labour decide
17.   Let Noel Edmonds decide	18.   Let EU decide	19.   ‘Soft Brexit’	20.   Revoke Article 50 (no exit)
	21.   Switzerland-style exit	22.   Full customs union access

Like a typical contestant, Theresa May will have no idea what is contained in these identical boxes. Like a typical contestant, there will be some boxes that Theresa May would like to possess, and others she cannot wait to see the back of. Like a typical contestant, Theresa May will receive a call from a banker every-so-often to see if he, or she, can offer the Prime Minister something that may tempt her. And like a typical contestant, Theresa May will face at least 20 compromises and get a box with a deal that she has no idea what it'll be.

Theresa May, with a box (Image: Career Path)

We are six months away until the UK is due to throw away its EU membership for, at least, many years to come. And despite this, we are none the wiser as to what 'deal' Britain will get from Europe. It is often difficult to analyse the current situation because, firstly, experts and politicians aren't changing their tune and, secondly, barely anything concrete has been agreed between Westminster and Brussels since the EU referendum date. As a Remainer, I find it tough to back an exit which looks set to damage the economy and negatively impact disengaged communities - a likely scenario. I equally find it tough to back a so-called People's Vote as it doesn't give voters a proper solution to the intense divisions this referendum exposed.

So here's what I think will happen. By putting on my Mystic Hat, I do see a 'deal', I do see the UK going through a formal exit of EU membership. What I also see, is a short delay to get a 'deal' of some kind agreed, meaning that Britain won't be leaving Brussels until beyond the 29th March 2019 - I'm guessing the process will end in time for that year's summer recess. I also see the 'deal' not being a long-term one, it will be something interim that Downing Street and the EU will be happy with for a short period of time. It will guarantee no 'hard border' between the two Ireland nations as well as access to both the Single Market and Customs Union until every agreement in these systems come to a natural end.

It's too late for Theresa May and her government to agree with the EU on something long-term. There has been too much dithering for this to be secured. It isn't Europe's fault, and blame shouldn't be solely aimed at Westminster either. The process of allowing two years for Article 50 to run its full course is impossible, but because nobody had triggered it before, we were all oblivious to the obstacles we see today.

By short-term, I mean the next three years. This would give both the UK government - whoever will govern the nation by that point - and the EU to come together, analyse the situation and agree on something long-term by 2022. Any campaign for the so-called 'People's Vote' needs to wait until after the EU-exit has taken place. Unfortunately, this campaign is orchestrated only by those dying for the UK to remain in Brussels.

In an ideal world, I'd like Britain to remain in the EU too. However, there's too much at stake to allow a 'People's Vote' to take place. We still don't know what 'deal' we're going to get, so why campaign for something the majority of these campaigners may be actually happy with? Let's wait until at least two years after a 'deal' has been agreed before giving the voters their thoughts on whether the EU-exit is right for the UK moving forward. If the nation didn't like it, let them have that option to return to Brussels.

Theresa May's focus on getting a 'deal' is the right one at this stage. But she has to think short-term now, not to expect to get everything agreed in the next six months. That is simply idealistic. The need for realism cannot be underestimated. She must also appreciate there are so many compromises to make. That's the reality of cancelling a membership of any organisation, let alone the European Union.