If May goes, so shall Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May have big decisions to make (Image: Daily Express)

There has been a lot of talk about Theresa May's future as Prime Minister. Since June's general election, so-called experts have unleashed their inner Mystic Meg and, to this day, are still predicting her political demise. She has so far survived the summer backlash and the bruising conference season. Many today guess May won't last beyond the New Year.

At this stage, I beg to differ. It's difficult to say when May does eventually tender her resignation, but one thing is for certain - the Conservative Party is going through a sticky period. It is an organisation associated with an apparent calmness that lures voters with their reportedly sensible policies. They're not used to dealing with internal crises, so all this chaos and rebellion is completely new to them. The issue of Europe has been a catalyst for this, yet, even today, they struggle to agree on domestic policy.

The Tory's tactics are currently reactive. Many of the Party's ministers weren't enthused with the way it negotiated with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to form a minority government. The likes of Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke and Grant Shapps have spoken vocally against some of their Party's key positions. In the cabinet, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson don't see eye-to-eye and if rumours are true, Theresa May is offered an ultimatum - reshuffle and oust either Hammond or Johnson, or leave.

The government is in disarray, which is damaging for the UK's positioning domestically and abroad. The markets are still investing but under the pretence that any minute from now, it's about to pop. The pound against other currencies continues to plummet. Relationships between British and allied ministers are showing cracks. May isn't just clinging on to her job, but clinging Britain against falling from a cliff edge.

Davis, Rudd & Hammond (Image: Daily Telegraph)

It's occasionally healthy to cling on to something, so long as you know it's both worth it and it's good for that individual's wellbeing. In this scenario, May's primary reason for clinging on is because she doesn't want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister. Some of May's colleagues have accounted this, hence a number of her loyal ministers - Amber Rudd, David Davis and Liam Fox to name a few - are clinging on to her.

Before the last general election, even before Labour's sudden surge in the polls, it was clear the public preferred what the Party in red stood for, yet would rather May over Corbyn to lead the country. This shift has changed slightly in recent months, however there are a number of influential political commentators left unconvinced. Ultimately, the primary reason Corbyn is the preferred leader today is because of how the press are, one-by-one, turning their backs on May's vision and handling of important affairs.

Despite May's downfall, Corbyn's situation hasn't really changed since before the summer. His approval rating outside Party circles remain in negative territory and some Labour ministers aren't overly pleased he is still leader. He's certainly proved critics wrong, yet I can only see his situation similar to Theresa May's, should he do anything misconstrued in the near future.

My only prediction is that Corbyn will 'outlive' May, but if Labour want to be in government - when that eventuality occurs - Corbyn would also depart his leadership role. His departure won't be performance based, yet purely tactical.

I've called for Corbyn to go before. Though in the two years he's led Labour, my perception of him has completely changed. He moved the Party in a way that got even the 1997 supporters excited. Without the glory, he almost single-handedly brought the glory days back to a Party which seemed dead and buried. His way of thinking is now resonating and echoed to not only his peers, but to the opposite benches too. He is more influential than many are led to believe. His impact is admirable.

Corbyn with Starmer & Thornberry (Image: Daily Telegraph)

The reality however is that, in this climate, neither May or Corbyn are any closer to winning an overall majority - no tactical voting will be ensure this either. Luckily for both parties, there is hope - so long as they seek it, and approach it with care.

The situation is easier for Labour. The unity is much stronger today compared to six months ago - and that's an understatement. They have the likes of Sir Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry climbing up the ranks, who please both the so-called 'Corbynistas' and 'Blairites' while at the same time offering a certain charm that impresses even the most sceptical of commentators. Plus, both are the most consistent in explaining Labour's positions in key policy areas.

For the Conservatives to succeed, they need a leader that can do so with their own instinct, as opposed to being led by a result or outcome - which May has done. It isn't working and even people who voted 'Leave' in last year's EU Referendum aren't impressed by her strategy in cancelling UK's European Union membership. That said, it's very tough to identify who would do a better job than May in her Party. I cannot list anyone who would have that ability to satisfy the Party's current needs. Right now, Tory MPs are either pro-Europe or very anti-Europe. If the Party wants to get back on track, they need a balance and form a like-minded cabinet. It worked well for David Cameron in 2015, until the infamous referendum.

While the British public won't desire Party-centric leaders, for a good Prime Minister of a country which has over 65 million people, an ideal candidate would need to prove they can form and organise the Party they lead. May isn't likely to leave anytime soon because there is too much drama going on for her to drop that type of bombshell. Only she knows when it's the best time, yet, with EU exiting negotiations intensifying and fresh obstacles along the way, walking away could make matters worse. Regardless, Labour need to be ready for any outcome and once it does, Corbyn will have is own ultimatum to make.