Brexit or Bremain, US Special Relationship is doomed

Donald Trump (L) and Boris Johnson (R) in support of Brexit. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders (C) back Remain.

With some crucial and world changing elections these coming months, it is hard to predict Britain's position in Europe and who will govern the US (and the UK for that matter) by the end of 2016. While the US Presidential Election is heating up and the unescapable EU Referendum in the UK on 23rd June dominating the headlines on both sides of the Atlantic, we hear too many 'what ifs' and countless number of rumours that have been arguably off-putting. As particularly the EU referendum is just around the corner, there is a considerable number of people who are undecided, while America has been split over the Democrat and Republican candidates, although the past week or so we saw Donald Trump confirmed as the Republican's nominee.

Both elections mentioned here are linked in many ways and key figures have intervened. In the States for example, Trump has backed 'Brexit' while Democrat's leading and most likely nomination, Hillary Clinton, has said that UK is stronger in a reformed Brussels. Bernie Sanders, the fellow Democrat candidate, who is pushing Clinton to the point that her nomination won't be confirmed for a while longer, also backs the Remain vote. These stances may not be relevant today but come their election in November, voters would want to know their foreign and international trade policies prior.

It is intriguing to see how American politicians view the UK and Europe and knowing their attitudes towards the country and continent, after the referendum, will be important. For decades, we have seen the relationship between both sides of the Atlantic blossom. From Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, to Tony Blair and George W. Bush, to David Cameron and Barack Obama, this 'Special Relationship' has never looked so fruity.

David Cameron & Barack Obama (Image: Daily Mail)

But come the end of the year, I truly believe, and somewhat fear, that this 'Special Relationship' could be diminished. Certainly, UK/US relations has been catastrophic at times such as making decisions to invade Iraq and Afghanistan arguably leading to the crippling economic crisis in 2008. But also, they've done some great things - leading the peace process with Iran and opening doors to various employment boosting deals.

However overall, I do feel that this relationship is a positive one as long as the partnership is right. Barack Obama can make friends with anyone and has gotten the best out of David Cameron's foreign policies (those the President had a voice in). However, when Obama departs, would his replacement continue this relationship and take it to the next level? This could depend on who is UK's Prime Minister by this time.

If UK opts to leave the European Union, speculation surrounding David Cameron's position as Prime Minister would be under severe scrutiny. Many say he'll leave 10 Downing Street meaning that the Conservative Party would have to vote for a replacement and possibly a quick general election soon afterwards.

Should Cameron resign, if you believe in the papers, his Tory replacement is either Boris Johnson or possibly Chancellor George Osborne or Home Secretary Theresa May. Boris has won key elections before when he was London Mayor for two terms and is a nationally popular figure. Yet, in recent months, he is one of the leading figures of the Leave campaign in the EU referendum. He was outspoken against Obama's decision to suggest Britain should vote Remain when the President visited London in April, and therefore disagrees with Hillary Clinton who is considered favourite to next reside in the White House.

Also, Boris has slammed Donald Trump for the US billionaire businessman's controversial views, particularly about Britain. Johnson recently was quoted to saying he avoids parts of New York in case he bumped into the Republican nominee while being told they resemble was "one of the worst moments". This certainly isn't encouraging if they're both leaders of their respected countries. And with Boris fundamentally disagreeing with Hillary on the key EU issue, would he be fit to become Prime Minister under the current political climate? He wouldn't want to be Prime Minister if UK is still a member of the European Union, or be at the back of the trading queue as Obama suggested UK would be if they left the single market.

Jeremy Corbyn at a Stop the War rally (Image: Tariq Ali)

I'd also be worried for this 'Special Relationship' if Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is in government in the near future. Corbyn has been a historic critic of the United States, notoriously anti-war, particularly the ones the US were involved in - and is opposed to NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It's too early to tell of how he could work with Hillary Clinton but he's also a critic of Donald Trump inviting the businessman to a London Mosque. "He may learn something", Corbyn adds.

It isn't doom and gloom for Labour however. I do believe that Corbyn will listen to his frontbench and I can see the likes of shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn being at the centre point of this. But if there's a Conservative government post-David Cameron, Boris Johnson simply cannot be Prime Minister. George Osborne doesn't have the same popularity as the former London Mayor so right now, his potential nomination isn't relevant.

To me, there are only three Tory MPs that can enhance the UK/US 'Special Relationship', have the ability to unite Britain and have the capability in developing some half decent foreign policies - Nicky Morgan, Ruth Davidson and Philip Hammond. I say Education Secretary Morgan, because you can tell she is trying hard to restore some transparent relationship between schools, Unionists and government that former secretary Michael Gove totally ruined (despite the recent apparent deliberate leaks of children's exams). Okay, her 'academisation of schools' proposal was flawed, but she quickly realised that and forced Cameron into a significant u-turn. Having watched her closely, she is seen as the more liberal choice.

Ruth Davidson meanwhile can be seen as the new popular choice. The Scottish Conservative leader has transformed the party north of the English border and overnight guided them as direct opposition to the Scottish National Party. Davidson - who is openly homosexual, Christian, likes a drink (BBC's words, not mine), a kick-boxer and ex-squaddie - is somewhat not your 'typical' Tory. Also, she enjoys Twitter and appears to be 'one of us' - one recent tweet to her over 40,000 followers, after her election success last week, says, "Right, home after 40 hours on the go. Pyjamas, hoodie, sofa, Masterchef, large glass of rum, and then to bed....".

Philip Hammond with John Kerry (Image: Daily Telegraph)

Finally, Philip Hammond would probably be the US's more ideal choice, as both Republicans and Democrats are familiar with him. The Foreign Secretary worked rather tirelessly with US's Secretary of State John Kerry to ensure Iran's nuclear deal came to a peaceful conclusion that would satisfy all parties involved, something which previous American and Iranian administrations denied from happening. Hammond also tends to go out of his way to defend and keep the United States sweet.

Of course, neither the three I mentioned here sound ideal to next lead the Conservatives because they hold certain views that may not reflect on modern society. Yet for the future of the UK/US 'Special Relationship' to thrive and regardless of the EU vote, Hillary Clinton and UK to remain in the EU is the only viable solution. Labour could benefit should Corbyn be open to keeping this relationship alive.

Should Britain vote to leave the European Union, the only hope is that US votes for a President who wouldn't put UK at the back of the trading queue, and if Donald Trump is the only Presidential candidate that can honestly promise that, then good luck to him. Whatever happens, the US are already seeing this horrendously timed EU referendum in UK as something that can lead to a Britannic crisis - regardless of the way the vote goes.