Labour & Tories pushing Scotland out, again

Nicola Sturgeon outside Downing Street (Image: Zimbio)

This is the last chance I'm going to address my thoughts on this tightly fought general election before May 7 as on election night, I land back in the UK after what I intend to have a super five days in Spain. Fear not, I will vote by post and I have decided who I'm going to vote for so I won't dither, unlike millions that still have no idea who they want to represent them in the next five years.

Summarising this election campaign is difficult. These past few weeks have seen polls remain static so while all parties have knocked every door, spoke to constituents, spent every penny on printing leaflets, it's clear that they're all working as hard as each other. The two TV debates were fascinating and the interrogations of David Cameron and Ed Miliband by Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley four weeks ago gave us the real indication as to who can take the heat and who can't. I'm also looking forward to the Question Time session by David Dimbleby with Miliband, Cameron and Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg this Thursday.

In my view, it is clear Ed Miliband is enjoying this campaign. While Labour are unlikely to win an overall majority, at least their leader has improved his approval rating. For me, Cameron simply cannot wait until this process is over. In the beginning, he approached the election as if the Conservatives won it because of their economic record. But the British public vote for a leader who is both good with our money, and who is charismatic. Statistically, the economy has recovered well since Cameron took office, but he's not relaxed. He defends his track record but people aren't convinced. We're not convinced because Cameron lacks a personality. His party received the most votes in 2010 but that's because many lost faith in Labour.

Prime Minister against Scottish Independence (Image: Standard)

But for me, the biggest election talking point is not the NHS, not immigration, not the economy, but Scotland. What are we going to do with the Scottish National Party? Only seven months ago they were the pain in the Scots' backside during the tightly contested independence campaign. In the end, 55% in Scotland rallied against the SNP wishes of having the country to do things alone and a considerable portion of the 45% who voted 'Yes' probably never voted the Nationalists. They were the demons who wanted to split the United Kingdom. But all of a sudden, if you believe in the polls, they're taking over that part of the UK and expected to take 45-50 seats when in the previous election, they took only six.

Their sudden rise in popularity began when Alex Salmond decided to step down as leader of the SNP just days after the independence vote. He was replaced by Nicola Sturgeon who kept the party quiet and out of the public eye for a short while. Then when they returned, they went out all guns blazing. Yes, the press are counter-attacking, looking at any opportunity to bring them down, but the SNP are still hitting the right notes. In the recent election TV debates, Sturgeon arguably won both a similar way to when Nick Clegg emerged victorious in the three election debates five years ago. What's altered this time is that the other leaders have approached these televised debates differently.

In 2010, only some anticipated a Hung Parliament so Clegg took advantage of that and used the opportunity to convince the public of an alternative. Although the Liberal Democrats didn't do as well as they liked, they still had the power to get their hands on the keys to Number 10. Their strategy worked. But this time, we are 99.9% certain that no single party would end up in Downing Street with an overall majority and the smaller parties, including the Lib Dems, are taking advantage of this and looking desperate to get the vital votes and do what they can to make a difference in government policy.

But Labour and Conservatives are approaching this election differently. The parties are distancing themselves from any partnership and furthermore, the SNP are the centre of attention. The SNP insist they want Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister and her party to coalite with the Labour Party but 'Red Ed' says there's a fat chance of that happening for two reasons. It may be true to say that 'one vote for SNP means a vote for the Tories', but his main reservation is that independence debacle. He states Sturgeon only wants to get into Westminster so that Scotland can have that independence vote another shot. Sturgeon hasn't stated either way, but Miliband doesn't want to take any risks. And SNP have emphasised they'll never, ever agree a deal with the Conservatives due to their austerity plans.

Ed Miliband against Scottish Independence (Image: Guardian)

I don't think that it matters whether who forms a coalition with the Scottish Nationalists but in all honesty, Labour and the Tories have handled their popularity shambolically. Whenever the SNP are in the news, either Cameron or Miliband are on the attack. As much as I want Miliband at Number 10 (yes, I intend to vote Labour), they're making a big mistake in their attempt to woo the Scottish people. Scotland weren't happy that they hadn't received 'their fair share' of money from Westminster compared to the South East of England. The current government have easily dismissed these claims, despite funds being cut over the last five years.

I can see why Labour have their reservations. They have campaigned for Scotland to remain part of the UK last time and will do so the second should they ever find themselves in that situation. But if they push the SNP away the same way as the Conservatives are, it'll only encourage Sturgeon's drive for a second independence referendum. All Scotland want is to be included in British Parliament plans and if the polls turn out to be accurate and SNP rule the north, whichever government we get next month would need to listen to them. Going to bed with Sturgeon may not be a bad idea for Miliband as long as she promises that she doesn't hold an independence referendum in the next five years.